Could Drone Attacks in Moscow Change How Russian People Perceive Putin’s War in Ukraine? Transcript

For the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, civilian areas of Moscow came under a drone attack this morning. Russian authorities blamed Ukraine for at least eight strikes in the capital city. Five drones were shot down, but three wandered into residential areas, damaging buildings and causing residents to evacuate. Ukraine did not claim any direct involvement. The rare strikes inside Russia followed yet another barrage of Russian air attacks on Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv in a sign of escalating tensions.

Moscow awoke to the sights and sounds of war, for the first time since it invaded Ukraine. Loud explosions, plumes of smoke in the Russian capital, at least three buildings were hit and evacuated. For these eyewitnesses, the war had come home.

Around four o’clock, there was a deafening bang as if strong thunder struck somewhere near. I came out to have a look and there were many emergency services on site, and it was visible that the top of the house was damaged.

I don’t even know. It’s scary. You sit at home and this thing flies at your window. Of course, it’s dangerous and it’s scary.

The drones targeted a posh neighborhood, home to the Russian elite, including President Vladimir Putin. He blamed Ukraine and called it provocation.

Now as we know, they have gone as far as drone attacks. Though I’m more worried, not by this, but by efforts to provoke a Russian response. That appears to be the aim. They’re provoking us to do the same. We will see what can be done.

One man had an idea of what to do. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the paramilitary Wagner force that’s been fighting in Ukraine, lashed out at the Russian Defense Ministry. He’s been waging a fierce public relations campaign against those running Russia’s war.

Get your (beep) up from the offices in which you are to defend this country. You are the Ministry of Defense. You didn’t do a thing to advance. The fact that they fly to your home, the hell with it, let your houses burn. And what do ordinary people do when drones with explosives crash into their windows?

The Ukrainian capital also woke up to yet another series of overnight airstrikes, the third to hit Kyiv in 24 hours. One strike hit this high rise, destroying what was once someone’s home. One woman was killed, and four others injured. Those who survived this strike, fear the next one.

I am stressed and angry. I think everyone feels scared when something is flying towards them. We have all survived, but we think of what will happen next.

At least 17 such attacks have hit Kyiv this month, terrifying children who ran for shelter.

So what impact will the attacks inside Russia have on how the Russian people perceive Putin’s war in Ukraine? We turn now to Denis Volkov. He’s director of the Levada Center in Moscow, which conducts public opinion polling. Denis welcome. As you know, these drone strikes seem to be bringing the war closer to home for Russians. But more broadly, tell us about your public opinion polling. What does that show you about Russian sentiment and support for the war in Ukraine?

Well, general support is pretty high, about 75%. But if we look deeper, we see that only 50% is a strong support. And another 30, 25%, they have circumstantial support. They join the majority. They have a lot of qualms about what is happening. And about 25% is the core hawkish respondents. So it’s I think about 20, 25% for whom Prigozhin is a hero, for whom the war should go on as long as Kyiv and so on and so forth. So several different circles of support.

And have you seen anything that tells you whether or not these drone strikes would have any impact on that level of support?

What we see that single events do not have big impacts on support of Russian military, of Russian president. Actually, I have had some discussions of previous drone attacks in Kremlin and people who were in Moscow were discussing it and said, “Well, yes, probably it’s a problem that it’s Kremlin. Putin is there. What can we simple people expect?” But apart from this, I would say they were pretty okay. Pretty stable. And, of course, there are different explanations for this and some of our respondents, for example, say that they have no more resource for worry, that they’re too tired of worrying and they just try to adjust to the situation as it is.

What about the impact of the sanctions, especially over time? We heard a lot from President Biden, and leaders in the Western Alliance, that these would have great impact, not just on the elites and those around President Putin, but more generally on the Russian people. Have those at all eroded support over time?

Well, actually, we saw that there were a shock in the beginning, in March and April last year, but then people adjusted. Of course, the biggest impact of sanctions was inflation, but it was put under control by the end of spring. And actually, with at least 50% of our respondents sanctions are popular. People say, “Now we will develop our own industry. Government was not doing it for 30 years. Now the West will force us to do so.”

(06:13)
And absolutely, I would say the most popular sanctions on big oligarchs, which ordinary Russians don’t like, they say, “Yes, that’s good.” Otherwise, I would say we do not have big impact. Though some, maybe more educated, more informed respondents, say, “Well, sanctions are like toxin. They work over time.” But the majority of Russians don’t really care that much.

Denis, how is it that the Russian government has been able to seemingly cushion the Russian public from really feeling any impact of this war?

Well, I think because Russian government invested a lot of resources into it. I mean, not only state media that provide a narrative that helps to accept the situation, but also money, economic stability. I think if we had a banking system collapsed last spring, we would have been discussing very different moods right now. But also social spendings. For we saw that not only families and actually people who are taking part in this special military operation, as it is known here, they got relatively high money, high social package for ordinary Russian. But also we saw that at the end of last year, the government increased salaries in the state sector, increased pensions, and it helps people to accept this.

That is Denis Volkov from the Levada Center in Moscow, joining us tonight. Denis, thank you for your time.

Thank you.