How the Suspected Death of Prigozhin Could Impact Russia’s Stability Transcript

We return now to our other lead story, a plane crash in Russia that could have ramifications around the world. A jet went down today on route from Moscow to St. Petersburg. The airline said it was carrying the head of the infamous Wagner mercenary group.

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Outside of Moscow, a plane falls from the sky. The possible fiery fate of a former Kremlin soldier turned traitor.

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Yevgeny Prigozhin rose from the St. Petersburg underworld to become known as Vladimir Putin’s chef, thanks to Kremlin catering contracts. He helped cook up the 2016 US Disinformation Campaign from this St. Petersburg building.

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Then Prigozhin’s Kremlin catering turned violent. His paramilitary empire Wagner Group deployed thousands of mercenaries to a dozen countries to do the Kremlin’s bidding. In Ukraine, Wagner helped Russia capture the center of Bakhmut in the war’s longest and deadliest battle.

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Thanks to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin for giving us the high honor to defend our motherland.

But he also turned his guns toward Russia. He questioned the war’s goals and blamed military leaders by name for his men’s deaths.

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We have a 70% shortage of ammunition. [Foreign language 00:01:22]. Where is the ammunition?

And then his most notorious act, a coup attempt and march to Moscow. It was aborted, but Putin called it quote a stab in the back.

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Excessive ambition and vested interests have led to treason, a betrayal of the country, its people, and its cause.

Today, President Biden said he couldn’t confirm Prigozhin’s death, but suggested the coup attempt sealed his fate.

I don’t know for a fact what happened, but I’m not surprised.

Do you believe Putin is behind this, sir?

There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind.

For more on Prigozhin and the plane crash, we get two views. Angela Stent worked in the State Department during the Clinton Administration and served as a top US intelligence officer on Russia during the George W. Bush administration. She’s now a professor at Georgetown University and her latest book is called Putin’s World.

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And Candace Rondeaux is a senior director at New America, a Washington DC-based think tank. She’s written extensively about the Wagner Group and Prigozhin.

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Welcome to you both. Candace, so far we have Russian authorities, as well as some social media accounts, linked to the Wagner Group saying Prigozhin was onboard and was killed. Should we have any reason to doubt those reports?

Well, there’s always a reason to question what comes out of the Kremlin. We know that in past situations Prigozhin has been predicted as dead in other plane crashes. We saw that several years ago, back in 2018, 2019. There was a Congo crash.

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I think this time we see the reaction on Telegram from Prigozhin’s fans, Wagner fans, people who are close to him seeming to confirm that, in fact, he is dead and the namesake of Wagner Group, Dmitry Utkin, is also dead, along with several others who are very involved in the business.

Angela, you heard the comments there from President Biden, also CIA director Bill Burns had recently said he’d be surprised if Prigozhin escaped retribution after that coup attempt. Would Putin want Prigozhin dead? Do you believe he could be behind this if Prigozhin is dead?

Well, I think Putin would have enough reason to want Prigozhin dead. After all, Prigozhin challenged the Kremlin, he challenged the conduct of the war, he had a populous message to Russians that while their children were dying and their husbands dying in Ukraine, the children of the elite were in the south of France enjoying themselves. There was plenty of challenge there.

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Putin, in that brief extract that we saw from his television appearance on the day of the coup, was certainly very angered by it.

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If indeed it was an assassination and the plane was shot down by Russian air defenses, and we don’t know that yet, that’s the speculation, it’s also really to try and deter other people in the elite, in the military from challenging Putin again, just making them understand what will happen to them if they do.

Candace, what about that? If this was an assassination of some kind, how would that be received and perceived in Russia? What’s the message that’s meant to send?

Well, the message is mess around and you’ll find out, basically. I think the timing is interesting. We heard just recently that Sergey Surovikin, General Armageddon as he’s known, a big backer of Prigozhin for a very long time, since their days together in Syria, he apparently was demoted, has been under house arrest.

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There are still other shoes I think left to drop in terms of the retribution inside the military. A number of different commanders there who probably will be I think dealt with or are being dealt with, so that’s going to be really key to watch.

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In terms of what we’re hearing out of places like Belarus where we know there are some Wagner contingents still operating, we see that there are reports of the internet being cut off, cell phones also being cut off in that area. That suggests in fact that there is some concern in the Kremlin that there could be some sort of retribution or some sort of operational sort of revenge plan that Prigozhin had in place in case of death.

Angela, up until recently, we should remind folks that Wagner Group led by Prigozhin played an absolutely crucial role for the Kremlin and Russia’s war in Ukraine. If Prigozhin is dead, what kind of impact would his death have on that war?

I think we already saw that Wagner troops were withdrawing from Ukraine. As your report showed, they were instrumental in taking Bakhmut, for instance, but there are fewer of them there. We don’t I think quite know the numbers.

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I think what’s very interesting is just on Monday a video came out with Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly in Africa saying that the Wagner recruitment is going on and that they want people particularly to go and fight in Africa, to join the coup people in Niger and things like that.

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Even if Wagner will be less important now in Ukraine, for the time being it looks as if it will still play a crucial role in other theaters in the world, particularly in Africa.

Angela, what about those other operations, though? As you know, Wagner Group is not just a security arm of the Kremlin, it’s also a business one. They run mining operations in a number of countries. Is there someone else who could step up and take Prigozhin’s place?

Well, there’s certainly other commanders in Wagner, including people in Africa. There isn’t anyone who has the charisma that he has had as a Wagner leader. In that sense, whoever is running Wagner in the future, and as you said, his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin was also killed, there won’t be an individual like that, certainly not someone who will try and kind of rouse the public to criticize the war.

(07:32)
I think that would be another impact of his death is that you’re not going to have other people criticizing the war. Yet, as was already mentioned, the military bloggers and the pro Prigozhin people, they’re going to have a feeding frenzy in the next few weeks, maybe months, criticizing the Kremlin. That could lead to some greater instability, at least in the short run.

Candace, in the minute and a half or so we have left, we have to reflect. Prigozhin is such a unique figure, right? He went from a Kremlin caterer to a disinformation force to head of this paramilitary empire. If he is dead, we have to stress we have not had this confirmed by US officials, but how do you look at his legacy, his impact on power, and also Putin’s agenda?

Well, his legacy is Putin’s legacy. They came of age really almost exactly at the same time. There’s only 10 years between them. They’re both native sons of St. Petersburg, and they really together grew into the men they are today, or at least they were today, in this mafia culture in the wild nineties.

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Had it not been for that I think fusion of interests back in the nineties and the overlap between the mafia and the KGB, maybe we wouldn’t be talking about Yevgeny Prigozhin today.

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I think he leaves a tremendous legacy, a stain certainly on the Russian history, on Putin’s legacy as well, and enormous amounts of death and destruction and the loss of many innocent lives, including journalists, human rights activists who tried to expose his misconduct and his wrongdoing over the years. In a way, perhaps it’s a moment of closure and justice for those who have suffered at his hands.

Candace Rondeaux and Angela Stent, thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you.

Thank you.