Sep 12, 2022
La Nina Winter Ahead Transcript
La Nina Winter Ahead. Read the transcript here.
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Speaker 1: (00:00)
A La Nina update as well as your fall and winter weather update here as well for 2022 and 2023, and your daily weather forecast and tropical weather update at the end of this video is in this forecast.
Speaker 1: (00:14)
Thank you guys for joining me, Weather On The Go, all your weather coverage. Thank you guys so much for joining me on Monday morning. Getting towards here the middle of September, and what better way to start off your morning with your weather forecast. If you guys are new to the channel, definitely consider subscribing down below. If you guys do like detailed weather breakdowns across all of the United States, Canada, and the tropics, this is the place to be, so subscribe down below, as well as like this video, if you guys like detailed weather forecasts.
Speaker 1: (00:41)
Moving forward here, looking at the La Nina conditions using the Nino Index, we are firmly in a moderate La Nina right now with a negative 1.0 on the chart, and that’s firmly in the middle of moderate La Nina status. As you can see, the past couple of months, going back to the middle of July, we were actually in a weak La Nina. We have slowly started to kind of strengthen the La Nina conditions all the way back to a moderate La Nina now, and I do think the expectations are for this La Nina to strengthen even further as we get into fall and early winter.
Speaker 1: (01:15)
So looking here at the La Nina conditions, if you guys know about La Nina, we have colder conditions along the equator. When you have these colder conditions along the equator, that is actually for the La Nina. If you have warmer conditions along the equator, that is El Nino. So right now we have the cooler conditions right along the coast of South America, right along the Equatorial Pacific here along the equator, and that means we are in firm La Nina status here with a moderate La Nina ongoing.
Speaker 1: (01:42)
So looking here a little bit farther out, I did some digging here to kind of show you what the forecast is with the climate forecasting models out there. This is a consolidation of all the models out there and we’re definitely seeing a lot of these models converging together, and some of the models do have this strengthening towards a strong La Nina, but even some of the other models have it weakening towards neutral conditions, I think as we get towards late in the winter and especially into next spring.
Speaker 1: (02:10)
So going through the next several weeks as we get in towards October, November and even December, I do still think that a lot of these models are trending towards a strong La Nina, and will be strengthening this La Nina into the next two to three months before we start to weaken the conditions and we start to see some warmer waters return across the Equatorial Pacific and near the equator where we have more neutral, and then eventually and potentially, even an El Nino returning as we get into 2023 toward the late spring and potentially into summertime of 2023 as well.
Speaker 1: (02:43)
So looking at this a little bit further, using the Climate Forecasting Systems version two model here, this kind of goes more in depth with what we can expect with the spaghetti model here. You can see we are going to be back here towards a moderate La Nina for the next couple of weeks at least, but it does appear that we’re going to stay stationary or if not strengthen towards a strong La Nina for a time.
Speaker 1: (03:05)
And again, it does agree that this starts to go back towards neutral conditions and then eventually toward an El Nino, which would favor warmer waters over the Equatorial Pacific and portions of the equator there as we get into next year, into 2023, especially as we get towards spring, and especially as we get towards summer for this period.
Speaker 1: (03:24)
And looking over the past seven days with the sea surface temperature anomaly change, we definitely see these bursts of some cooler waters. That does still signal the stronger La Nina starting to emerge across this area. Again, this La Nina is not going anywhere anytime soon. We’re going to be firm La Nina conditions all the way through the next several months, probably going all the way through early springtime unless we get back to neutral conditions during that time.
Speaker 1: (03:48)
So looking here at October, what you can expect for your October 2022. It does look, generally, along and east of the front range of the Rockies here across the middle and eastern portions of the US, as well as southeastern Canada up there toward Ontario and Quebec, it looks largely above normal with your temperatures.
Speaker 1: (04:06)
Now it does not mean that we could not see some cooler weather from time to time with some cold fronts dropping from the north from southern Canada, but overall it does look above normal. So that means that if your average high temperature in the middle to end of October is in the mid-50s and you have temperatures for highs, for example, in the upper 50s to lower 60s, that is above normal. So we could be seeing that as we get into October.
Speaker 1: (04:31)
And looking at the precipitation during this period, it looks like an active period of especially up into British Columbia, Alberta, Canada, this is in southwestern Canada, as well as the Pacific Northwest pretty active. During the middle of the month of October, I do think we could be opening up for some more severe weather potential with the kind of that ramp up in the second season for severe weather, more tornadoes, more large hail, damaging winds potentially across the Great Plains, over toward the Tennessee and Ohio Valley will have to keep an eye on, but largely I do think we’ll have drier than normal conditions over that period of time as well from the front range of the Rockies down through north Texas, over there toward the Missouri Valley, the Ohio Valley, and perhaps the northeast.
Speaker 1: (05:10)
It looks like October will be busy potentially into the Gulf of Mexico, near Florida and the coastal Carolinas, we have to watch for some tropical weather at that point, especially through the entire month of October, we know the tropics can be very active as well. And looking specifically at the tropics here with the Atlantic and the Caribbean and the Gulf here, it does look pretty busy.
Speaker 1: (05:29)
We got these waves coming off of Western African coast that is going to move toward the west toward the Lesser and Greater Antilles, potentially surviving farther into the Caribbean, farther into the Gulf, we could be seeing some tropical storms, potentially some hurricanes and maybe not even out of the question for a major hurricane to make landfall here potentially towards the US. So we’ll have to watch October very carefully.
Speaker 1: (05:52)
The anomalies are favoring potentially an active October for tropical weather across especially the Caribbean and the Gulf, which has been pretty quiet this season. I think that will be ramping up in a big way as we get towards October.
Speaker 1: (06:05)
Looking across the Eastern Pacific Basin, it does look like the Eastern Pacific will start to slowly quiet down a little bit more in October. I know it’s kind of strange that we’re seeing a lot of systems this year with the La Nina pattern here with a lot of tropical storms, a lot of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, it’s not like that here in October. I do think we’ll start to quiet down.
Speaker 1: (06:27)
I think we’ll have drier anomalies showing up. There will be from time to time probably a tropical storm or tropical depression, but I really think overall we will start to quiet down across the Eastern Pacific Ocean with regards to the tropical weather here of the October standpoint here of 2022.
Speaker 1: (06:45)
Going back here to the mainland US for November, 2022, moving into kind of your winter months, it does look like we do stand the chance with that stronger La Nina, potentially get into that strong status here for a strong La Nina, like I said, we’ll see some warmer temperatures across the southern US and then inching its way up toward the Missouri Valley from time to time.
Speaker 1: (07:05)
And again, just because it shows warmer conditions, doesn’t mean it’s going to be 80 degrees. This is probably temperatures more like in the 60s here, maybe some 70s from time to time, especially if you get down here into the Gulf Coast in Texas, we will have above normal temperatures probably in November all the way up to Canada and of portions of the Great Lakes as well just because we have that La Nina conditions in place.
Speaker 1: (07:26)
We will have cold fronts again dropping down from the north from time to time, bringing some cooler weather, some colder rains, stuff like that, maybe some mixed snowflakes at times, especially across the upper Midwest. We do have cooler anomalies showing up across the west coast. That’s probably indicative of a couple of troughs dropping down across the Pacific Northwest from the Aleutian Islands from Western Canada as we get through November.
Speaker 1: (07:50)
Looking at the precipitation over November, looks pretty active across the Pacific Northwest into Washington, Oregon state, perhaps northern California. Some of these places desperately need the rainfall out west, while as the middle and eastern two thirds here of the country in November largely looks to be kind of drier than normal, especially as you get down here into the Gulf Coast, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and then on up toward the I-95 corridor towards New York City, Boston, largely drier than normal in November.
Speaker 1: (08:18)
Again, doesn’t mean we’re not going to see any rainfall at all. There will be rain chances throughout these areas, but it doesn’t look like averaging out the entire month of November, it will look drier than normal. Now looking at November, it looks like here we’re going to have that stronger polar vortex staying up to the north during the November timeframe. And when you have a strong polar vortex in place, it does not allow these cold snaps to drop all the way down into the northern US during this time.
Speaker 1: (08:48)
I do think November, while there will be cold snaps dropping into the northern plains and upper Midwest, I largely do think that we’re going to be talking more about here now temperatures that are slightly below normal rather than wind chills that’ll be 40 below. I think we’ll be talking about some cooler temperatures, but nothing too out of the hand of dangerous wind chills in November.
Speaker 1: (09:08)
Now looking to December, it looks like this will be kind of the transition month here. I think as we close out the 2022 season here, going into the middle of winter towards December, especially toward the Christmas timeframe, it will be that transition period with some above normal temperatures for most of the country, especially along and west of the Rockies this time and this go around. I think near normal conditions for temperatures will be favored across the eastern half of the country during December.
Speaker 1: (09:36)
But looking at December here, it looks kind of tricky on this. I know a lot of weather forecasts are calling for a lot of snow this winter. I really do think it’s going to be a delayed winter. I really do think we’re going to see some snow across portions of the middle of the country, the upper Midwest and Great Lakes at times, maybe some snowfall across the New England region, but largely December looks like that transition month to me.
Speaker 1: (09:57)
I think we have an active jet stream with that polar jet across Southern Canada into the Great Lakes. We have drier conditions from California all the way down into the desert Southwest, and a classic La Nina pattern with drier conditions from Texas all the way up into portions of New England from time to time. Again, there will be snow chances in here and some rain chances, but largely drier conditions across mostly the southern and southwestern US and the eastern US here for December with an active storm track largely up to the north along the US Canadian border and maybe even far up to the north towards central Canada in December.
Speaker 1: (10:30)
Looking at the polar vortex in December, again, it looks like a strong polar vortex and like I said again, stronger polar vortexes don’t like to drop cold air all the way south. So again, the stronger polar vortexes keep the cold air bottled up to the north across the Arctics. I do think we will have some cold snaps from time to time, maybe getting down as far south as the Great Lakes, the upper Midwest and New England. But again, these polar vortexes are tricky sometimes so we’ll continue to monitor this.
Speaker 1: (10:57)
But looking as we head into January, as we turn the page to 2023, it looks like now we get into towards that second half of winter and we’re really starting to turn the switch. We’re going to be talking about some colder air anomalies showing up across most of Canada, getting down into the northern plains and even the upper Midwest.
Speaker 1: (11:14)
I think this may be pulled down a little bit farther south than what this model shows, but I definitely think here’s some warmer temperatures are favored across the desert southwest along the Gulf Coast and the Southeast in January.
Speaker 1: (11:25)
Looking at precipitation in January, I do still think we got that active polar jet across southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest, while again classical La Nina pattern with drier than normal conditions from California all the way to Florida and in between here and to portions of Texas. We do have a lot of snow I think on the way across the Great Lakes and parts of the upper Midwest and New England as we head into January. I think as we get towards really the deepest part of winter towards January, towards early February, really going to be start talking about some bigger snow events potentially and some lake effect snow could be big this year across portions of Michigan, parts of Wisconsin, all the way down there towards portions of Indiana.
Speaker 1: (12:05)
I think portions of these areas could be seeing some significant lake effect snow events, especially even upstate New York, upstate Ohio here, definitely could be talking about some big snow events in January. And looking at January here, why we’re seeing this, we have this model is showing the polar vortex weakening and when the polar vortex weakens, it sends kind of, it splits or it kind of sends a lobe of colder air farther south into Southern Canada and potentially into the upper Midwest.
Speaker 1: (12:33)
That’s what we’ll be watching for in January. And again, looking at these three months, averaging the first half of winter out together, November, December and January of 2022 into 2023 largely looks warmer than normal. Now again, take this with a grain of salt because it does look above normal on here, does not mean it’s going to be very cold from time to time, especially as we get into January, I think we’re going to be talking about some cold weather. But November and December do look actually warmer than normal, I really do think across most of the country, and then we start to turn the page toward colder conditions in January of 2023.
Speaker 1: (13:07)
Same thing here with the precipitation. It does show drier precipitation across the southern US and southeastern US. Take this with a grain of salt as well. I do still think we’ll have some bigger snow events, especially in January across the Midwest, the Great Lakes and New England, as well as the portions there of southwestern Canada into the Pacific Northwest averaging these three months together.
Speaker 1: (13:28)
But going back here into the second half of winter now, going into February, 2023, we have that polar vortex still sticking around I think across southern and southeastern Canada into the upper Midwest and New England. We got the warmer temperatures across portions of the Southern US with that La Nina or kind of neutral conditions working back into the picture by this time in February.
Speaker 1: (13:47)
Again, drier conditions where those warmer conditions are across the south, again, we could have some rainfall, but again, this is really looking drier than normal, largely from California to Texas to the Southeast to Carolinas of Florida. Bigger snow events across portions here of the northern plains, the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, could have some bigger nor’easter potential across portions of the New England region, especially depending on the water temperatures in the Western Atlantic. We’ll continue to watch that.
Speaker 1: (14:14)
And looking here at February, again, a weak polar vortex is possible, which means that will nudge this colder air farther south towards southern Canada, towards the upper Midwest and to portions of the northern plains. If you guys remember 2019s cold snap, we could be talking about wind chills in late January, early February, I’m predicting potentially 40, 50 below wind chills potentially setting up as we head towards the late winter period.
Speaker 1: (14:39)
If you guys remember 2019, this is shaping up to be pretty similar. Again, all these events are different, but again, if you kind of average these out, these are pretty similar potentially looking, so that will be something to watch. Looking at March, again, I think the polar vortex is going to stick around longer into March like we saw last year, like we saw back in 2020 and 2019, we’re going to see a lot of these polar vortexes sticking around I think longer into winter with the change in these weather patterns.
Speaker 1: (15:08)
And it looks like even into March we have cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and we still have kind of more I think neutral conditions, maybe getting back toward El Nino conditions at this point with some warmer air trying to retreat north. We could have a battle zone in the middle of the country with more ice potential I think in March. As we kind of warm things up, we could be watching for some ice storms and maybe some kind of wet snowstorms across portions of the central plains, getting over toward the Tennessee Valley here and the Ohio Valley with more ice storms and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: (15:39)
Again, as you see the precipitation anomalies across the Great Lakes here, we still could be seeing some lake effect snow into March. So that will be something to keep an eye on. Again, averaging these three months out together with the temperatures January, February, March of 2023, largely colder up to the north, again, I would pull this blue area farther south, really into portions of the central plains over toward the Ohio Valley. I really do think kind of averaging these three months out, it’ll be a lot colder than normal and again, still that warmer than normal conditions from California to Texas to Florida and the Carolinas during this period.
Speaker 1: (16:09)
And again, those drier conditions, averaging these month out months out here with drier conditions to the south and wetter conditions to the north with more snow up toward the Midwest, the Great Lakes with a big Great Lake enhancement snow event possible this winter. So I hope that kind of gives you some headway on what you can expect for the rest of fall and going into winter.
Speaker 1: (16:31)
Now going into your local weather forecast, we did see a lot of rainfall the past 24 hours across portions of the Western Great Lakes dropping one to three inches of rainfall across northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and down into portions of the Missouri Valley here, even some heavy rainfall across the southeast. But as we move here into this afternoon, we still got that upper level trough that’s really kind of digging down to the Great Lakes. That’s responsible for that heavy rain the past 24 to 48 hours, that will continue to move its way eastward as we head towards Tuesday and the middle of this week.
Speaker 1: (17:02)
Towards New England, we have kind of that return flow with more ridging starting to build across portions of the central plains as we get towards Tuesday timeframe. But again, before then, we do have that wraparound moisture with some heavy rainfall potential across the Great Lakes getting into northern Illinois and portions of eastern Wisconsin this afternoon. That will continue into the evening hours and then start to spread more eastward towards the New England region, towards portions of Eastern Ontario into Quebec, Canada as we head into Tuesday afternoon. Maybe some rain showers in upper elevations here off to the west, maybe some early snowfall across the mountains here of the Rockies. We’ll continue to watch that as we get toward the middle of next week.
Speaker 1: (17:39)
Looking at the temperatures out there with the lower clouds, the rainfall, we could expect temperatures here into the low to mid 60s across the Chicago lakefront, all the way up to Green Bay in Milwaukee, maybe near 70 over there in Detroit. While we have return flow with warmer conditions across much of the great plains with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s, maybe some lower 90s mixed in there down towards central Texas, that will start to warm up a little bit further as we head into tomorrow with high temperatures in the middle 90s from portions of Kansas all the way down towards Dallas Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa.
Speaker 1: (18:10)
Where that trough will hang around across portions of the Eastern United States and the Great Lakes and New England, we’ll see cooler temperatures and less humidity across this region on your Tuesday. Looking longer range for your September 17th through the 21st timeframe, the Climate Prediction Center rather is actually forecasting above normal temperatures across most of the Eastern two thirds of the country going in towards that third week in September with that trough digging down across the Western US across portions of Washington, Oregon, Northern California, Nevada. We’ll see below normal temperatures favor there between September 17th and the 21st.
Speaker 1: (18:46)
Looking at the precipitation, it looks like the active jet stream will be across the Pacific Northwest, the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes during this period with the classic La Nina conditions with below normal precipitation from the desert Southwest in the four Corners region, all the way eastward toward the Tennessee Valley and the Mid-Atlantic during this period as well.
Speaker 1: (19:05)
So one feature I wanted to kind of hint at you guys about, I did kind of hint at this a couple of videos ago and maybe even in my last video, there is a strong trough that’s going to develop as we head towards the middle of next week and dive down toward the Pacific Northwest. But before then, we’re going to start to see that return flow with the ridging at first toward the middle of the week and then we’ll see more zonal flow start to work in off the Eastern Pacific into the west coast of the US as we head into late next week.
Speaker 1: (19:33)
But to keep an eye on this very strong jet streak up toward the Aleutian Islands into southern Alaska here late this week, this will dive down in a big way. A big ridge will dominate across the Northeastern Pacific Ocean and this will send a positively tilted trough across the Western US as we get towards this weekend, and really digging down across portions of the Rockies and even the northern plains I think as we head towards fall equinox, as we head towards that September 20th, 21st timeframe. As we move towards fall officially, we could be talking at about a major storm system here with a low pressure system starting to develop on the base of the trough and kind of moving its way off towards the east northeast as we head into that third week in September.
Speaker 1: (20:15)
And what this is concerning me about is that as we have this low pressure system developing on the southern end of this trough, on the base of the trough, and as it ejects more farther toward the east, we’ll be talking about here some precipitation parallel to a boundary that could develop, which could be another cold front or something like that. And if we have precipitation developing along a slow moving boundary, we could be talking about more heavy rain setups, maybe even some widespread severe weather is definitely not out of the question, especially considering as we have a very strong trough, all these cooler temperature anomalies diving from north to south across Canada and into the Western and central US during this period, especially as we have that return flow out ahead of that with the warmer temperatures and more humidity. And that’s something we’ll continue to watch as we get longer and towards portions of the third week of September.
Speaker 1: (21:05)
Quickly looking at the tropics, we got a 70% chance of a system developing in the Eastern Pacific Ocean here, watching this with the convection across this area, again, disorganized now. We’ll continue to watch it. Looking here at the icon model right now, just watching an open wave moving across the coastal Mexico region. This will continue to move towards midweek across portions of southern Mexico or just south of there.
Speaker 1: (21:26)
And then as we get towards late week, we could be developing a tropical depression or a tropical storm across coastal Mexico, and then kind of having its eyes more towards the Baja of California. We’ll continue to watch that. We have the warmer waters for it, so we’ll continue to watch it again. We got water temperatures here, these orange shaded colors in the 80 degree mark Fahrenheit, so we’ll continue to watch that.
Speaker 1: (21:47)
And in the Atlantic rather, we have two systems to watch, which could be named as Fiona or Gaston. Those are the next two names on the list, and these both have a 20 to 30% chance of development over the next two to five days or so. Again, we have a couple of waves. We got the first wave here in the Southern Atlantic basin and another wave coming off a western African coast. And these two systems could be named potentially moving forward as we head into today. Not much going on right now in the Atlantic.
Speaker 1: (22:13)
As we get toward the middle of the week, these two systems may develop into a tropical depression here or get closer to developing toward a tropical depression. And then by the time we get to late week, we might have to watch one of these waves moving closer towards the Windward Islands with potentially a tropical depression or a tropical storm during that time as well.
Speaker 1: (22:31)
And looking at the warmer waters across these areas, not a surprise that we’ll see more development across this area, especially with these oranges, even these red shaded colors across the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, if they can man manage to get farther west into these areas, yeah, we got 85 degree water temperatures here Fahrenheit across this area, and looking at the pressure drops here and pressure rises in the brighter colors here in the oranges and reds, those are actually lower pressures here and we’re seeing a lot of that across the southern Atlantic.
Speaker 1: (22:57)
So it’s just a matter of time before one of these waves can move across some of these areas here where we could see some lower pressures here and we could definitely start to spin up another tropical depression or tropical storm.
Speaker 1: (23:09)
I know that was a big update for you guys. I wanted to update you guys on the rest of fall, the winter, as well as your La Nina update, your local weather forecast and the tropics out there to keep you ahead of all of the storms. Thank you guys so much for watching. Remember to like the video down below by giving it a thumbs up. And again, leave any comments, questions, and concerns below as well, and subscribe to the YouTube channel, guys. Thanks to all the new subscribers out there. My goal is to hit 1,000 subscribers before September 20th. Definitely appreciate it guys. Thank you for joining me and I’ll see you all in the next video.